Current Options Portfolio

Current Options Portfolio

realized gain

realized gain

Last updated May 7, 2010

Last updated May 7, 2010
note: calendar year total return is approximate

Saturday, March 27, 2010

U.S. Stocks Trim Advance, Treasuries Gain on Korea Concerns

U.S. stocks trimmed gains and Treasuries rose as concern that tensions between North and South Korea were escalating triggered a flight from risky assets. Gold futures rallied 1 percent, the most in a week.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,166.59 at 4:19 p.m. in New York after gaining as much as 0.7 percent earlier. The iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund, a U.S. exchange traded fund tracking stocks in that nation, erased a 1.4 percent gain and slid 0.6 percent as a South Korean naval vessel sank near the border of North Korea. Trading of puts, which give investors the right to sell the fund, surged to a record. Futures on South Korea’s Kospi 200 Index expiring in June lost 0.6 percent.

“This is really all about that variable we call the geopolitical; it’s about Korea,” said Peter Kenny, a managing director in institutional sales at Knight Equity Markets LP in Jersey City, New Jersey. “It’s taken some of the euphoria out of the market.”

The earlier rally in U.S. equities came as analyst upgrades and takeover speculation boosted financial and retail companies and concern eased over a possible Greece default. RadioShack Corp. jumped 8.5 percent on a New York Post report that the electronics chain is considering a sale of the company. Apple Inc., Progressive Corp., Urban Outfitters Inc. and SLM Corp. advanced after analysts either raised price targets or lifted their ratings on the shares.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major trading partners, slipped 0.6 percent to 81.602.

Korea Concern

The iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund fell 0.6 percent to $48.74 in New York. Trading of put options that give the right to sell the ETF surged to a record of more than 55,000 contracts. The most-active contracts were April $45 puts, which jumped 40 percent to 35 cents.

The South Korean naval vessel sank off Baengnyeong island in the Yellow Sea, near the border with North Korea, an official in the office of President Lee Myung Bak said. The cause was unclear, he said. About 50 crew members were still being searched for, with 58 rescued, said the official, who declined to be identified in accord with government policy. President Lee convened a meeting of security officials to discuss the incident, said the official, giving no further details.

Greece Aid

The early rally in stocks also came as European leaders backed a proposal late yesterday for a mix of International Monetary Fund and bilateral loans for Greece, while saying the nation probably won’t need help to cut the region’s biggest budget deficit. The U.S. economy grew at a 5.6 percent annual rate last quarter, the government said, and the Reuters/University of Michigan final consumer sentiment gauge for March topped forecasts as the pace of job cuts slowed.

“The transition from an economy that’s been driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus back to more of a traditional, consumer and business-driven growth may provide some opportunities,” said Greg Woodard, portfolio strategist at Manning & Napier in Fairport, New York, which manages $28 billion. “But it’s probably to provide some more volatility as we move through 2010.”

Treasuries rose for the first time in four days, sending yields down, as lower-than-average demand at this week’s record- tying $118 billion note auctions pushed yields to levels that encourage buying.

The two-year yield dropped 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 1.05 percent. Yields on 10-year notes decreased 3 basis points to 3.86 percent after rising yesterday to 3.92 percent, the highest level since June 11.

Treasury Demand

Demand waned at this week’s auctions of two-, five- and seven-year notes as signs of improvement in the economy boosted appetite for higher-yielding assets. At the seven-year sale yesterday, investors bid for 2.61 times the amount of debt on offer, the least in 10 months.

President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to a record $7.4 trillion as he borrows to sustain the U.S, economic expansion.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates. Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.”

“I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan. An increase in long-term interest rates “will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.”

Euro Gains

The euro strengthened 1 percent to $1.3410 against the dollar and the Athens Stock Exchange’s ASE Index climbed 4.1 percent, the most since Feb. 9. The yield on the two-year Greek note tumbled 20 basis points to 4.46 percent.

“Investors see the agreement as a backstop, and it is helping sentiment towards the euro,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London, of the Greek accord reached in Brussels. “However, this is a rather uninspired recovery and it’s difficult to say that this is an unequivocal vote of confidence.”

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations’ stocks increased 0.2 percent.

European stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index losing 0.5 percent to trim a fourth straight weekly gain, on concern mounting government debt may derail the economic recovery even after the European Union agreed a Greek aid plan.

‘No Choice’ for Europe

Unipol Gruppo Finanziario SpA sank 7.7 percent in Milan, the most in a year, after Italy’s third-largest insurer announced a share sale and posted a full-year loss. Veolia Environnement SA, the world’s largest water company, slipped 1.1 percent in Paris after JPMorgan Chase & Co. advised selling the stock.

“Europe has no choice but to solve the Greece situation,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Cleveland- based Key Private Bank, which manages $25 billion. “If you have confidence solving the debt crisis, the euro will rise against the dollar. However, the buyers of stocks over there will be discouraged to buy because of the weakness of their economies.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 1 percent, its biggest advance in more than a week. The Kospi closed 0.6 percent higher before the South Korean ship sank. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose to the highest level since October 2008 and the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 1.3 percent.

Emerging Markets

China helped lead the MSCI Emerging Markets Index 0.4 percent higher, its first gain in three days. Brazil’s Bovespa index climbed 0.4 percent. Russia’s Micex Index increased 0.6 percent after the central bank cut its main refinancing rate for the 12th time in less than a year, lowering it a quarter point to 8.25 percent.

Nickel for delivery in three months rose 3.4 percent to $23,600 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange to lead industrial metals higher. Copper, lead and tin also advanced.

Gold for June delivery added 1 percent to $1,105.40 an ounce on speculation demand will increase amid escalating debt concerns and the Korea incident.

Crude oil fell for a third day, retreating 0.7 percent to $80 a barrel in New York after climbing as much as 1.2 percent earlier.

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Final Commentary

The experiment was a great success overall. It is very obvious there is no way to beat the indices in a major bull market runup. The selling put strategy works best in a slightly bearish and neutral market. Day to day market movements are mostly dependent on daily economic news as seen throughout 2010.

Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.

The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.

I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!

Donald

Experiment Ground Rules

This is an experiment to evaluate how successful my selling cash covered put strategy over time. The target end date is January 22, 2011. Over the course of the year, market and trade recaps will be posted frequently. This paper trade is solely for educational purposes. To keep things simple, here are some ground rules before we start:

1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.

2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.

3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.

4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.

5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.

6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.

7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.

8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.

9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.

10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.

General Investing Guideline

1. You are the best person to manage your own money

2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average

3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)

4. Do your Due Diligence

5. Keep abreast on economic news daily

6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage

7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth

8. Buy at value

9. Diversification

10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)

Options Trading Guideline

1. Pick up any option book and start reading. There’s ton of information on the Internet and be sure you read difference sources. Make sure you understand the structure, the risk and the profit/loss of any option strategies

2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with

3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)

4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)

5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.

6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)

7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)

8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller

9. Diversification

10. Risk Management

a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.

b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.

c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.

d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.

e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)