No real bargains this week, except for MON which fell today. I already have two positions on it. Markets this week just rallied. Tomorrow is the March 6, 2009 lows anniversary. Beside, the job report, maybe this key date might have fueled today's rally as well. Here are some headlines:
Stocks and commodities rallied while Treasuries retreated and the dollar erased gains after a smaller-than-estimated decrease in U.S. jobs added to evidence the global economic recovery is accelerating.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.4 percent to 1,138.7 at 4:14 p.m. for a sixth straight advance, its longest rally since the start of the year. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.5 percent to extend its biggest weekly increase since the beginning of December. Russia’s Micex Index jumped for a seventh day, the longest streak since July 2006. Oil and copper surged, while Treasury two-year note yields climbed four basis points to a two-week high of 0.9 percent. The Dollar Index slipped 0.2 percent after gaining as much as 0.4 percent.
Global stocks extended their advance after a U.S. government report showed the country’s unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in February as the nation lost 36,000 jobs. Economists on average had forecast a decrease of 68,000 jobs and a gain in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.
“Today’s employment report was a real win-win,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, in a note to clients. “If it was considerably negative, it would be dismissed as snow-induced and a snapback in March was all but assured,” he wrote. “On the other hand, if the report was better than expected, and it was, then it demonstrates a strong jobs market in spite of weather related factors.”
Yearlong Rally
The S&P 500 has rallied 68 percent from a 12-year low almost a year ago as the economy returned to growth following a yearlong contraction. The gains have been led by a 144 percent rally in financial shares, while consumer-discretionary and industrial companies have almost doubled. The advance trimmed the S&P 500’s drop from a 2007 record to 27 percent as of yesterday’s close.
European stocks capped the biggest weekly gain since July as investors speculated that the European Union will assist Greece with its finances if required. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 1.6 percent today and 4.6 percent this week, erasing its loss for the year.
The cost to protect against defaults on U.S. corporate bonds declined to the lowest in more than six weeks. Credit- default swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index Series 13, which is linked to 125 companies, fell 2.5 basis points to a mid-price of 86.25 basis points as of 11:08 a.m. in New York, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group.
Corporate Bond Rally
Corporate bonds are rallying the most since the beginning of the year as Greece raised 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) in a sale of 10-year bonds and today’s U.S. jobs report bolstered confidence in the economy.
The extra yield investors demand to hold investment-grade bonds instead of government debt narrowed 3 basis points this week to a one-month low of 165 basis points, heading for the biggest decline since the period ended Jan. 8, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate index. On Feb. 17, spreads were 171 basis points.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.5 percent as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average completed its biggest weekly gain this year, rising 2.4 percent over the past five days.
Taiwan’s Taiex Index rallied 1.3 percent, leading gains in Asian stocks after a report yesterday showed a drop in jobless claims in the U.S. and two Federal Reserve Bank presidents said they believe the central bank should keep rates low until the recovery picks up.
The MSCI emerging markets gauge has rebounded to the highest level in six weeks after a selloff sent it down as much as 13 percent from its 2010 peak on Jan. 11. It’s still 1.5 percent lower for the year.
Siegel Is Bullish
“Equity returns around the world are going to be good but they’re going to be particularly good in emerging markets,” Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong.
Emerging-market equity funds attracted $240 million in the week ended March 3, the third straight week of inflows, EPFR Global said, citing easing concerns about a contagion from the Greece debt crisis and a recovery in exports. Greece sold 10- year bonds yesterday with investors bidding for more than three times the 5 billion euros ($6.8 billion) it sought to raise.
Greek bonds rose, sending the yield on the nation’s 10-year debt down three basis points to 6.07 percent.
Bond Spreads
The extra yield investors demand to own developing-nation debt over U.S. Treasuries declined 13 basis points to 2.72 percentage points, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI+ Index.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3 percent after fluctuating earlier today as Premier Wen Jiabao warned of “latent risk” in the nation’s banks and pledged to crack down on property speculation in a speech to the National People’s Congress. The premier also affirmed an 8 percent economic-growth target, saying that the government will continue its moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal stance.
China’s “government will boost expenditure on increasing the reserves of grain, edible oil, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and other important materials,” the Ministry of Finance said in a 2010 budget plan issued today during the National People’s Congress in Beijing.
Oil rose 1.6 percent to $81.51 a barrel while gasoline climbed 1.6 percent to $2.2704 a gallon in New York and touched $2.2831, the highest since Oct. 3, 2008. Copper for May delivery gained 4.2 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $3.4175 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit. The contract advanced 4.1 percent this week.
Reading Material
101 Options Trading Secrets
Using a Put Selling Strategy
The Beauty of Selling Put Options
Put Option Selling: Ge Paid to Buy the Stocks You Want
Options Selling - 5 Simple Success Tips
Risk of 'Unlimited Losses' in Naked Option Selling is a Myth!
Here's a Different Way of Looking at Options
Using a Put Selling Strategy
The Beauty of Selling Put Options
Put Option Selling: Ge Paid to Buy the Stocks You Want
Options Selling - 5 Simple Success Tips
Risk of 'Unlimited Losses' in Naked Option Selling is a Myth!
Here's a Different Way of Looking at Options
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Final Commentary
The experiment was a great success overall. It is very obvious there is no way to beat the indices in a major bull market runup. The selling put strategy works best in a slightly bearish and neutral market. Day to day market movements are mostly dependent on daily economic news as seen throughout 2010.
Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.
The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.
I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!
Donald
Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.
The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.
I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!
Donald
Experiment Ground Rules
This is an experiment to evaluate how successful my selling cash covered put strategy over time. The target end date is January 22, 2011. Over the course of the year, market and trade recaps will be posted frequently. This paper trade is solely for educational purposes. To keep things simple, here are some ground rules before we start:
1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.
2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.
3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.
4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.
5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.
6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.
7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.
8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.
9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.
10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.
1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.
2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.
3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.
4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.
5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.
6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.
7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.
8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.
9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.
10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.
General Investing Guideline
1. You are the best person to manage your own money
2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average
3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)
4. Do your Due Diligence
5. Keep abreast on economic news daily
6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage
7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth
8. Buy at value
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)
2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average
3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)
4. Do your Due Diligence
5. Keep abreast on economic news daily
6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage
7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth
8. Buy at value
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)
Options Trading Guideline
1. Pick up any option book and start reading. There’s ton of information on the Internet and be sure you read difference sources. Make sure you understand the structure, the risk and the profit/loss of any option strategies
2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with
3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)
4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)
5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.
6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)
7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)
8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management
a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.
b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.
c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.
d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.
e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)
2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with
3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)
4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)
5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.
6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)
7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)
8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management
a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.
b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.
c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.
d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.
e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)
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