Current Options Portfolio

Current Options Portfolio

realized gain

realized gain

Last updated May 7, 2010

Last updated May 7, 2010
note: calendar year total return is approximate

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

markets keep on marching and making new 52-week high

With three days till expiration, my only March open position:

sell to open 1 PUT XOM 2010MAR20 65 for $1.18 USD looks good indeed.

We have to be patient and wait for a substantial pullback before we can start selling some PUT options again. Yesterday was a small opportunity, but the market rallied to close positively. It sucks to be a bear right now, but you have to patient, a pullback is eminent in my opinion. Here's today's recap:

U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reaching a 17-month high, as the Federal Reserve said it will leave its main interest rate near zero for an extended period to safeguard the economic recovery.

Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. paced gains in financial shares after the central bank said that while the economy is improving, low rates are still needed for an extended period. Intel Corp. rallied 4 percent after saying it shipped more than 100,000 of its new chips. General Electric Co. rose 4.5 percent on plans to possibly resume dividend raises next year. Harley-Davidson Inc. jumped on renewed buyout speculation.

The S&P 500 increased 0.8 percent to 1,159.46 at 4:04 p.m. in New York, the highest since October 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 43.83 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10,685.98 for a sixth straight gain, the longest stretch of the year. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, an exchange-traded fund tracking the benchmark index, rose for a 13th day to extend a record streak of gains.

“The FOMC statement wasn’t materially different, but there were some nuances out there that support the market,” said Cliff Remily, a money manager at Santa Fe, New Mexico-based Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees $57 billion. “The statement reaffirms that we are in a recovery and their views on the labor market and business spending certainly helped.”

The S&P 500 closed at 1,150.23 on Jan. 19, the highest level since October 2008, and then plunged 8.1 percent through Feb. 8 on concern that European nations including Greece will fail to pay back debt and speculation that the Fed will need to rein in emergency stimulus measures as the economy improves. The index has since erased that loss and extended its rebound since March 9, 2009, to 71 percent.

Fed Statement

The Fed said today that the labor market is stabilizing and business spending has risen, while inflation remains subdued. Although bank lending continues to contract, the Fed said, financial conditions should spur economic growth. Still, the Fed said, the economy is likely to require low interest rates for an extended period of time.

“The market really liked what it heard for a quick pop,” said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets Inc. in Chicago, who expects a possible change in rates in the second half of 2010. “People got their orders in pretty quick.”

An earlier report showed prices of imported goods fell in February more than anticipated, a sign there is little inflation pressure coming from abroad. The import price index declined 0.3 percent, the first drop in seven months, the Labor Department said.

Greece Rating

Benchmark equity indexes extended gains in late-morning trading after Greece had the threat of a cut to its credit rating reduced by S&P, which cited the country’s efforts to narrow a budget deficit that is more than four times the European Union’s limit. S&P affirmed the nation’s BBB+ rating, removing it from “creditwatch negative,” meaning the company is no longer considering an imminent reduction to the grade.

“Greece is also helping to drive investor sentiment,” said Thomas Nyheim, a money manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Co. in Greeneville, Delaware, which manages $5.2 billion. “With the stable rating now, it doesn’t look like problems are pervasive throughout Europe.”

Citigroup rose 4.1 percent to $4.05. The bank 27 percent owned by the U.S. is bolstering a unit that trades stocks with the lender’s own money after a proposed government ban of proprietary trading helped spur eight of its 22 employees to defect, people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Wells Fargo climbed 1.3 percent to $30.28, the highest price in five months.

Intel, GE

Intel climbed 4 percent to $22.01, its biggest gain since August and its highest price since September 2008. The world’s largest semiconductor maker said it already has shipped more than 100,000 units of its Xeon 5600, a server chip that officially goes on sale today.

GE had the biggest gain in the Dow, advancing 4.5 percent to a 15-month high of $18.07. The company, which last year cut its shareholder dividend for the first time since the Great Depression, may resume increases in 2011 and repurchase stock for the first time since 2008 amid a “snapback” at the finance unit, Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin said.

The world’s biggest maker of jet engines and medical imaging machines has “earnings momentum slowly building,” and “for the first time in over 10 years, the pieces are in place for earnings upside,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a note to clients.

‘Pretty Well’

“The market has done pretty well year-to-date,” said Randy Bateman, who oversees $13 billion as chief investment officer at Huntington Asset Advisors in Columbus, Ohio. “We’ll still see catalysts to move stocks higher. Good cash flow, merger and acquisition activity, stock buybacks and dividend increases will tempt investors. We’re looking for a pretty good year of double- digit return.”

Limited Brands Inc. rallied 4.2 percent to $24.71. The owner of the Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works chains said its board approved a dividend of $1 per share and authorized a $200 million share repurchase program.

Financial Engines Inc. surged 44 percent to $17.25 in its first day of trading after the investment adviser co-founded by Nobel laureate William Sharpe became the first U.S. company to price an initial public offering above its forecast range this year.

Harley-Davidson Speculation

Harley-Davidson had the biggest gain in the S&P 500, rising 7 percent to $28.35. The biggest U.S. motorcycle maker rallied on renewed speculation it may be acquired.

“We’ve been seeing rumors of a leveraged buyout,” said Patrick Mortimer, director of options trading at Pipeline Trading Systems LLC in New Hope, Pennsylvania. Bob Klein, a Harley-Davidson spokesman, couldn’t be reached for comment.

Real-estate companies had the second-biggest gain after chipmakers among 24 industries in the S&P 500, rising 2.5 percent as a group. Billionaire investor Sam Zell said real estate investment trusts will have enough cash to boost dividends in the future and that he expects more takeovers in the industry.

Equity Residential, the largest publicly traded U.S. apartment owner, surged 3.3 percent to $39.37. ProLogis gained 3 percent to $14.21. Kimco Realty Corp. rose 3.2 percent to $15.57.

Housing Starts

Homebuilders advanced, led by Lennar Corp., even after a report showed housing starts in the U.S. fell in February as record snowfall in parts of the country hampered construction, while fewer building permits signaled demand is stagnating. Builders broke ground on 575,000 homes at an annual rate last month, down 5.9 percent from January’s revised 611,000 pace, Commerce Department figures showed. Building permits, a sign of future construction, decreased for a second month.

EBay Inc. rose 2 percent to $26.79. The most-visited U.S. e-commerce site started a Send Money application for Apple Inc.’s iPhone. EBay said mobile transactions grew almost six- fold last year, to $141 million.

Wyndham Worldwide Corp. fell 2.8 percent to $24.07. The franchiser of Days Inn hotels and Super 8 motels was lowered to “neutral” from “buy” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Sequenom Inc. tumbled 22 percent to $6.08. The biotechnology company posted a fourth-quarter loss excluding some items of 30 cents a share, 21 percent wider than the average analyst estimate.

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Final Commentary

The experiment was a great success overall. It is very obvious there is no way to beat the indices in a major bull market runup. The selling put strategy works best in a slightly bearish and neutral market. Day to day market movements are mostly dependent on daily economic news as seen throughout 2010.

Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.

The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.

I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!

Donald

Experiment Ground Rules

This is an experiment to evaluate how successful my selling cash covered put strategy over time. The target end date is January 22, 2011. Over the course of the year, market and trade recaps will be posted frequently. This paper trade is solely for educational purposes. To keep things simple, here are some ground rules before we start:

1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.

2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.

3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.

4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.

5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.

6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.

7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.

8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.

9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.

10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.

General Investing Guideline

1. You are the best person to manage your own money

2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average

3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)

4. Do your Due Diligence

5. Keep abreast on economic news daily

6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage

7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth

8. Buy at value

9. Diversification

10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)

Options Trading Guideline

1. Pick up any option book and start reading. There’s ton of information on the Internet and be sure you read difference sources. Make sure you understand the structure, the risk and the profit/loss of any option strategies

2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with

3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)

4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)

5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.

6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)

7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)

8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller

9. Diversification

10. Risk Management

a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.

b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.

c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.

d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.

e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)