What a month of March, what a start to 2010. 1st quarter of 2010 is in the books and the market rallied nicely from February lows. What is in store for the rest of the year? RIMM missed earnings, so on April Fool's Day, I expect the market will most likely sell off. Here's today's market recap:
Stocks and the dollar fell while Treasuries advanced as reports showed American employers unexpectedly cut jobs and growth in business activity trailed estimates. Gold rose and oil rallied to a 17-month high.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.3 percent at 4:14 a.m. in New York, trimming a fourth-straight quarterly advance. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.1 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 3.83 percent. Gold for June delivery rallied 0.8 percent to $1,114.50 an ounce, while the Dollar Index slipped 0.5 percent to 81.069. The Swiss franc rallied as the nation’s leading economic indicators climbed to the highest since November 2007.
U.S. companies cut an estimated 23,000 jobs this month, ADP Employer Services said, compared with a median economist estimate for an increase of 40,000 in a Bloomberg News survey. The data spurred concern economists are too optimistic about the rebound in employment two days before a Labor Department report forecast to show the biggest growth in jobs in three years.
“The ADP report caused jitters,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “Our view is that the recovery is sustainable, but I don’t think you can officially call it right now. When you get a question out there about the future recovery, you’re going to see market jitters.”
The S&P 500 trimmed gains on the final day of the quarter. The benchmark index climbed 4.9 percent since Dec. 31, its best first-quarter rally since 1998. The index fell to its low of the session today after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said its business barometer fell to 58.8 from 62.6 in February, trailing the median economist estimates of 61.
Dow Retreats From High
Cisco Systems Inc., Microsoft Corp. and DuPont Co. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average down from an 18-month high. Ford Motor Co. slid 5.4 percent on the UAW retiree fund’s plan to raise $1.78 billion by selling warrants to buy Ford stock. Chevron Corp. led energy producers higher as oil topped $83 a barrel and President Barack Obama said he will allow drilling off the East Coast.
A benchmark indicator of U.S. corporate credit risk rose after the ADP report. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 14, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, rose 1.9 basis point to a mid-price of 88.2 basis points as of 3:10 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index, which typically increases as investor confidence deteriorates and falls as it improves, has dropped 3.3 basis points in March, the second straight monthly decline, Markit and CMA DataVision prices show.
European Stocks
Banks led European shares lower, with BNP Paribas tumbling 2.5 percent in Paris after WestLB AG cut its recommendation on the shares.
Ireland’s benchmark ISEQ Index gained 0.9 percent, trimming a 1.5 percent advance after the U.S. jobs report. The rally came as the National Asset Management Agency announced details of its plan to revive the financial system. Bank of Ireland Plc jumped 24 percent in Dublin after saying it expects to avoid state control by raising most of its 2.7 billion-euro target for capital from private investors.
Irish Banks
The dollar declined against 11 of 16 major currencies, led by a 1.3 percent loss versus the South African rand.
The Swiss franc rose against all 16 major counterparts except the rand, climbing 1.9 percent against the Japanese yen, 1.2 percent versus the U.S. dollar and 0.5 percent against the euro.
The Zurich-based KOF research institute said its monthly aggregate of indicators that aims to predict the economy’s direction about six months ahead increased to 1.93 from a revised 1.9 in February. The franc rose even after Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Jean-Pierre Danthine said the bank will stop “any excessive appreciation.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6 percent, the steepest retreat since March 4.
Greek bonds fell, with the yield on the 10-year bond rising 9 basis points to 6.53 percent. The yield premium investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds increased 11 basis points to 344 basis points, the highest since Feb. 25.
The seven-year note, the first security sold by Greece since the European Union and International Monetary crafted a possible aid package last week, extended declines in its second day of trading. The yield climbed to 6.37 percent, from 6 percent when the security was issued on March 29, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices on Bloomberg.
Greece Borrowing Needs
Greece needs to borrow 11.6 billion euros ($15.6 billion) before the end of May after April funding was “taken care of,” Petros Christodoulou, director general of the Public Debt Management Agency, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Greece plans to sell a global bond in dollars in the next two months.
Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the deposit and debt ratings of five of the nine Moody’s-rated Greek banks due to a weakening in their stand-alone financial strength and anticipated additional pressures stemming from the country’s economic prospects in the foreseeable future.
Precious metals rallied, with gold capping a sixth straight quarterly gain. Platinum advanced 1.4 percent to $1,641.50 an ounce in London and palladium added 1.8 percent to $480 an ounce. Crude oil rose 1.7 percent to $83.76 a barrel in New York trading, the highest settlement since Oct. 9, 2008. A weaker dollar tends to lift prices of dollar-denominated currencies.
Soybeans tumbled the most in three months and corn dropped to the lowest price since October after the U.S. reported larger inventories than analysts expected. Wheat reached a five-month low as planting topped forecasts.
Shares in Japan, Sweden, Russia and Switzerland did best during the first quarter among the 20 biggest stock markets, with benchmark indexes rising at least 5 percent. Spain, China, Taiwan and Hong Kong did worst, falling 2.9 percent or more.
Reading Material
101 Options Trading Secrets
Using a Put Selling Strategy
The Beauty of Selling Put Options
Put Option Selling: Ge Paid to Buy the Stocks You Want
Options Selling - 5 Simple Success Tips
Risk of 'Unlimited Losses' in Naked Option Selling is a Myth!
Here's a Different Way of Looking at Options
Using a Put Selling Strategy
The Beauty of Selling Put Options
Put Option Selling: Ge Paid to Buy the Stocks You Want
Options Selling - 5 Simple Success Tips
Risk of 'Unlimited Losses' in Naked Option Selling is a Myth!
Here's a Different Way of Looking at Options
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Final Commentary
The experiment was a great success overall. It is very obvious there is no way to beat the indices in a major bull market runup. The selling put strategy works best in a slightly bearish and neutral market. Day to day market movements are mostly dependent on daily economic news as seen throughout 2010.
Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.
The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.
I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!
Donald
Success purely depends on market timing and also on lady luck. If you started to sell puts at the market peak of August 2007, obviously you would have gotten burned badly. No technical analysis in the world would have saved your ass at that point. Cash was king in bear market of August 2007 - March 2009.
The best trading advice is being cautious at all times and carefully plan out your trades. Time and sector diversification and selling strikes that are far enough from current market levels will give you the best probability for success.
I hope you have learned a lot from this blog and hopefully you are now ready to start trading with real money. The biggest risk, is not taking risk. No risk, no glory!
Donald
Experiment Ground Rules
This is an experiment to evaluate how successful my selling cash covered put strategy over time. The target end date is January 22, 2011. Over the course of the year, market and trade recaps will be posted frequently. This paper trade is solely for educational purposes. To keep things simple, here are some ground rules before we start:
1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.
2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.
3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.
4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.
5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.
6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.
7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.
8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.
9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.
10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.
1. We start with an imaginary $100,000 USD cash portfolio as of February 15, 2010.
2. We only sell cash covered puts on large capitalization companies and ETF Indices with expirations at most one year out.
3. The minimum premium received should be at least $1.00 USD per option after commission. We strive to sell near the 52-week low level strike level most of the time if possible. Due to the major runup in the markets since March 9, 2009 lows, this will be extremely hard to find a trade with decent credit within the one year time allowance. The alternate strategy is to find stocks that bounces strongly off a certain support level or trend line and we will sell puts options near that particular strike.
4. Ideally we want all trades to expire worthless. If the option is in the money at expiration, we will take delivery of the stock. While respecting the NET $1.00 premium after commission, we will write a call option (covered call strategy) at the same strike that we sold the put at. Ideally, we want to write the front month option if possible, otherwise we will write the first available month that will give us a minimum of $1.00 premium after commission.
5. We assume there will be no assignment during the life of the trade.
6. Commission used will be $9.95 (base) + $1.25/contract and the assignment fee will be $39 (base) + 8 cents/share.
7. To keep the portfolio diversified, we will trade at most three options within the same sector, but we will trade the same underlier with different expirations.
8. Ideally trades take place on a down day or whenever a stock declined in value.
9. To initiate a position, we will use the closing bid option premium on that day.
10. Interest earned on the cash will not be calculated.
General Investing Guideline
1. You are the best person to manage your own money
2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average
3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)
4. Do your Due Diligence
5. Keep abreast on economic news daily
6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage
7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth
8. Buy at value
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)
2. Treat this as a hobby and have fun. If you treat investing as a chore, your success rate will be much lower on average
3. Patience (There’s no such thing as once in a lifetime investment!)
4. Do your Due Diligence
5. Keep abreast on economic news daily
6. Keep it simple – Focus on large capitalization companies that have high competitive advantage
7. Concentrate on cash flow as opposed to capital growth
8. Buy at value
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management (Risk only what you can afford. Setup stop loss limits. Once the stock hits your stop loss limit, closeout your losing position and move on to the next trade)
Options Trading Guideline
1. Pick up any option book and start reading. There’s ton of information on the Internet and be sure you read difference sources. Make sure you understand the structure, the risk and the profit/loss of any option strategies
2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with
3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)
4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)
5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.
6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)
7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)
8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management
a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.
b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.
c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.
d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.
e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)
2. Always paper trade any strategies that you are unfamiliar with
3. Focus only on highly liquid options with excellent daily volume (DOW JONES listed companies for example)
4. Determine your outlook on a particular stock or index or futures well ahead of time - you can be bullish, bearish or even neutral (only options allow you to trade this particular stance)
5. Options are more a swing trade thing than a day trade (usually 1-6 months in duration) – Never force a trade, just for the sake of trading. Patience is key, you have to give it some time for a strategy to develop.
6. Never use options to speculate (some do, but I don’t)
7. Knowing some basic technical analysis will help you place more successful trades (especially knowing support and resistance levels)
8. On average approximately 80% of options bought expire worthless – it pays off to be a seller
9. Diversification
10. Risk Management
a. Setup stop loss limits, closeout the position immediately once it hits the prescribed threshold and move on to the next trade.
b. Never let a straight and simple long option position expire worthless. Always salvage some premium and move on to the next trade. Avoid 100% losses.
c. Risk only what you can afford and don’t overextend yourself. (10 contracts = 1000 shares or 1000 cash multiplier!). Know how much capital is at risk all the time.
d. Never borrow money to purchase options. Options are highly leveraged instruments and you can easily lose your shirt very quickly. Option premium prices change constantly and rapidly.
e. Always have enough cash at hand to cover an assignment (AMERICAN style options can be exercised anytime)
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