Wednesday, March 6, 2019


News catalyst can often trigger big moves in stocks. Earnings is the number one stock mover. Earnings are released after hours and pre market.
A massive earnings surprise on a stock with multi month base can lead to big rallies lasting weeks or months.
Focusing on "massive Earnings acceleration " will help you find 5 to 20 big ideas in a year that can make 50% to 1000% move.
In order to find such massive acceleration you need a structured approach to track after hours earnings news.
It should be efficient process which should only take 15 minutes...

How many of you would want to spend daily 15 minutes to find potential 50% to 100% move????

In order to do this successfully you need very streamlined process. If you just tracked these handful of links you should be able to find big winners periodically.
  1. Earnings whisper calendar https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar
  2. Marketwatch https://goo.gl/shkck
  3. Earnings Whisper email summary : you need to sign up for this . it is free
  4. Seeking alpha earnings news https://goo.gl/zkAKiB
A blowout earnings stock will not be missed if you do this daily.
Besides earnings news other news can also move stocks , but earnings will give you most bang for bucks for your 15 minutes.

Create a watch list based on after hours reaction to earnings

What to look for in a good Episodic Pivots or NTRT or MTRT Candidates

MAGNA5

MA massive earnings acceleration or massive sales acceleration or massive earnings surprise. Massive = greater than 100% plus with EPS growth 100% plus growth on meaningful terms. 5 cents becoming 20 cents not 1 cents becoming 4 cents. 10 million revenue becoming 200 million not 10 million becoming 20 million
G gap up on earnings day of at least 4 % plus in after hours or pre market with at least 100k volume
N neglect or base of few months to years. low fund ownership
A sales acceleration of 25% plus preferable. Earnings growth without corresponding sales growth is questionable. But in turnaround situation this condition can be ignored
5 Short interest ratio or days short greater than 5 or 5 days

Entering and exiting NTRT trades

Enter after hours if you have high risk tolerance
Enter Pre market again risky as sometime the moves fade
Enter at open with 1 dollar stop
Enter after 15 minutes less risky but you might miss some gains.
Exit on trailing stops. I trail by 1 dollar and then 50 cents as stocks moves in my favor
Many of these moves fade later after first 1 hour or 2 hours
Some move continue for days.
I go with day trade mindset in these unless my research indicates it might be multi day move.

Notes from Guru Trader

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=se0Qqa137lE

CNNFN fear and greed

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Stock Charts
$CPC

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Guys using similar method as me.


http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4650031.html

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4649896.html

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4639754.html

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4620657.html

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4640125.html


Friday, January 18, 2019

Stock Scanner



Finviz Scanner

1. Weekly Strong Performer

https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_curvol_o100,sh_price_o1,ta_perf2_1w30o&ft=4&ta=0&o=industry

2. 3x Relative Volume scan 1

https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_curvol_o1000,sh_price_o2,sh_relvol_o3,ta_changeopen_u4&ft=4&ta=0&o=change

3. 3x Relative Volume scan 2

https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_avgvol_o200,sh_curvol_o500,sh_price_o2,sh_relvol_o3&ft=4&ta=0


4.  Today up, Horizontal SR scan 

https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_curvol_o500,sh_relvol_o2,ta_averagetruerange_o0.25,ta_change_u,ta_changeopen_u,ta_perf_dup,ta_perf2_d5o,ta_volatility_wo5&ft=4&ta=0&o=change

5. Today down, Horizontal SR scan  (look for consecutive 2 days)
https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_curvol_o500,ta_averagetruerange_o0.25,ta_change_d,ta_pattern_horizontal,ta_perf_ddown,ta_perf2_d5u&ft=4&ta=0

6. Anticipation
https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=ind_stocksonly,sh_avgvol_o100,sh_curvol_o100,ta_change_-0.4to0.4,ta_changeopen_u,ta_sma20_pa&ft=4&ta=0

7. Under 3
https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sh_curvol_o500,sh_price_u3,sh_relvol_o1

8.OTC
https://www.otcmarkets.com/research/stock-screener

9.ORBO
https://elite.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=sec_healthcare,sh_avgvol_o750,sh_opt_optionshort,sh_price_o10,ta_averagetruerange_o1,ta_beta_o1&ft=4&o=perf1w

10. FIND NEW HIGHS VS NEW LOWS
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/highs-lows/summary


Event Calendar

https://thetradexchange.com/txcal18/ 

Lock up expiration calendar 
https://pro.edgar-online.com/ipo.aspx?colleft=3c2bcac1-dbf5-4776-9d3b-89001baee8d5&colright=b7d3b48b-3bc7-40dd-bba6-2e58e1a4fc92

WatchList
https://bullsonwallstreet.com/watch-lists/




Monday, March 26, 2018

Good resource on TradeStation


http://hightick.com/Tradestation/Techniques/A%20Pull%20Back%20Technique%20for%20Swing%20Trading/index.html

Saturday, October 14, 2017

UVXY play


http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4283095.html

人類自然的生理思想就是當某個股指到了很高或很低時,理論上很快就會或者應該會回頭調整。賭徒的心態就是“連開了20局大,下一局開小的概率高,我double bet小”。賭博的心態害死了不少人。但是股市是投資的地方,投資需要的是fundamental+probability。
UVXY的fundamental components有三個
1. 當前VIX值
2. upcoming VIX future值
3. VIX future expiration day
當VIX future值減去當前VIX值大於0.5時,不管是否感覺得市場很快就大回調,VIX很快就回升,我都會用ITM covered CALL。就是買一手market price的股票再short一個strike比market price低的ITM call。例如買一百股UVXY@18,sell a monthly call strike 16@3.50。為什麼我要買它在18,但是enter a contract去賣它在16?
這裏了解一下VIX和VIX future的關係。
VIX就是當前市場的情緒。簡單的就是今天或明天的市場情緒。
VIX future是市場將來的情緒。就是一個月或幾個月後的情緒。
如果我要賭VIX的,那麼今天的VIX是10的話,我壓籌碼在9.8或是10.2。9.8和10.2對比10只是咫尺之遙之。明天開盅的賭局,我的籌碼離今天的結果越近,勝算越高。如果今天VIX是10,我把籌碼壓到12或者8的勝算就低了。所以對於明天開盅的賭局,我要將籌碼壓在靠近今天的結果的位置。但是賭檯的規矩是籌碼壓在離今天的結果越近的地方就越貴。越遠的地方,進場注碼越低。那怎麼辦?我不賭明天開的賭局吧,我賭下個月開的賭局。
我賭下個月的VIX賭局(VIX future)。把籌碼壓到12的地方。希望一個月後VIX會飆升高過12獲利。 好了,現在時間有一個月,我慢慢等。過了兩天,VIX漲到10.2了,haha有點開心,但是還沒贏錢。過了一個星期,VIX掉到9.5了,crap,離我贏錢的地方更遠了,唯有把我的籌碼移到11.5的位置,保持兩個點的距離。過了兩個星期,VIX回到9.7了,shit,雖然有所回升,但時間只剩下兩週了,我只有又把我的籌碼移到11.3的位置來增加贏率。過了三個星期,VIX又掉到9.5了,OMG,時間只剩下一個星期了,9.5的VIX離我11.3的位置還有很遠,中獎機會不大了,我要把我的籌碼移到10.5的位置了,現在是一個點但距離了。還有兩天就開盅了,VIX掉到9.4了,TNND,我本來賭future的,現在變成賭後天開的局了,只有把籌碼移到10的位置等開盤。
由上可見,賭future賭局的人當開盅日慢慢接近,而他們賭future的位置就越來越接近今天的開盤位置。當future的開盅日還有很多時間時,賭徒們的籌碼位置放的很遠,開盅日接近時,他們就將縮減籌碼的距離位置。時間越少,他們移動籌碼的速度越快。雖然過程裡有時距離會減少,但是因為離開盅的時間少了,賭徒們唯有將他們的籌碼向目標進一步接近。
UVXY正是keep track這些賭徒的籌碼位置移動和速度。當VIX低過VIX furture的值而時間越來越少時,VIX future的值就下降得越快。 就算VIX偶然出現波動爬升一個小的幅度,但因為離future的位置還是低很多時,賭future的賭徒們在快沒有時間時唯一的option就是將他們的籌碼移動到更接近VIX的地方來增加勝算。於是就造成VIX升高了0.5,但是VIX future反而下降了0.2的現象。
這個就是用賭場和賭徒的運作來抽象了解UVXY的fundamental運作。當然股市並非exactly這樣運作,但原理大致相同。VIX會不會在VIX future到期前突然由9.4變成15呢?理論上jackpot不是沒可能,但是我去Casino是永遠不去bet jackpot位置的。
好了,了解完fundamental的運作,現在說probability。知道了VIX和VIX future,expiration day的關係,我已經知道了當VIX值低過VIX future值時,VIX future隨著expiration day的接近與VIX現值接近的原理。fundamental告訴我這種狀態下VIX future在settlement day前會繼續decline。UVXY track VIX future的movement。很明顯,如果我玩PUT的就buy put,如果我玩call的就sell call。probability和expectation是most likely go down,maybe go up。
如果我sell call的話,那麼我就有個風險就是萬一VIX突然飆升,那麼VIX future也隨著飆升。unprotect的話就要虧錢了。去protect我的風險,我either sell call vertical或者covered call。call verticat和covered call各有pros/cons。
如果我選擇用covered call。我有三個選擇。
1. sell OTM covered call: 買一手UVXY, 賣一個OTM的call
2. sell ATM covered call: 買一手UVXY,賣一個ATM的call
3. sell ITM covered call: 買一手UVXY,賣一個ITM的call
如何選擇那個option?回到UVXY的fundamental原理,VIX值低過VIX future值時,VIX future值在expiration前繼續decline。如果沒有jackpot的話,UVXY是會繼續decline。用ATM/OTM covered call 比用ITM covered call的風險高而且效率低。原因就是option world裡的delta rate和option的intransic/extrinsic value的關係。
這裡我忽略ATM,只是對比OTM和ITM的區別。
如果我買一手UVXY@18,賣一個20的OTM call option@2.00。  如果UVXY升above 20,我股票賺200,option賺200,總賺400.  如果UVXY掉到16,那麼我的股票虧損200,OTM option賺200塊,結果是even。我的break even line是UVXY@16.  如果UVXY掉到15,我股票虧300,option賺200,虧損100. 
如果我買一手UVXY@18,賣一個16的ITM call option@3.5,如果UVXY go above 18,就要用16塊的價錢出售手上用本來18塊買進的UVXY,虧200。因為我的UVXY是18塊買進,無論股價升到什麼價位我都要用16塊賣出虧200,但是好處就是不管怎樣都是虧200.   另一方面是option賺了350,350-200總賺150.   如果UVXY掉到16,那麼我的股票虧損200,ITM option賺350,結果是150 profit。如果UVXY掉到15,我股票虧300,option賺350,賺50. 如過UVXY掉到14.5,我break even。
對比兩個,OTM covered call option的upside可以有400的盈利,而ITM option只是有150的盈利。用OTM的upside的盈利回報高,ITM的upside盈利少。  在downside,OTM option的話如果UVXY掉到15,我就開始虧損。 ITM option的話,UVXY掉到15我還是盈利。downside用OTM的虧損大,ITM的虧損相對小。
為什麼我prefer用ITM covered call呢?因為根據fundamental的原理,downside的概率遠高過upside。我bet upside等於bet jackpot。  again,我去Casino是從來不bet jackpot的slot。  我的assumption是downside。我的target是total 150的profit。UVXY anywhere above 16我就guarantee有150的profit。14.5以上我都有small profit。  我bet的是UVXY的decline rate不夠時間快。UVXY decline有多快我不知道也無法預知,但是時間我卻是exactly知道它跑多快的。  如果我估計錯誤的話,UVXY跑到一半突然掉頭跑上25了。oh great,那正是我想要到,因為我的target就是那max profit的150塊。我估計錯誤但是達成目標。 如果我估計UVXY的decline速度錯誤,UVXY掉到14,我用ITM option的loss只是50, 但是如果我用OTM option的話我的loss就是200。
投資和賭博意義上一樣,但是想法不一樣。賭徒的想法是bet在小概率大回報的地方希望幸運之神降臨。他們會覺得upside有400的回報率而選擇bet在upside。  而投資卻是用fundamental的原理,向fundamental顯示的方向想和精密計算P/L。將籌碼bet在大概率,most likely有回報的地方。就算錯了,suffer的loss也少。  所以UVXY我會prefer去bet downside unless VIX值高過VIX future值。
以上是個人經驗,並非任何投資建議。切勿模仿,風險自負。

Sunday, October 1, 2017

Deep Dive into Selling Puts


DividendMeter has an excellent google sheet

http://dividendmeter.com/watch-list/

Covered Call Index
https://www.fullyinformed.com/covered-calls-strategies-index/

Selling Deep ITM put
https://seekingalpha.com/article/1947111-selling-puts-of-high-dividend-stocks-for-maximum-yield

Hellosuckers
http://hellosuckers.net/why-selling-puts-against-dividend-paying-stocks-is-a-win-win-strategy/



http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4164588.html

A good advice from 于 2017-02-26 04:47:28  wenxuecity 大千股坛

中长线持股:充分利用OPTIONS 不断降低成本 以期最大利润两个前提:

(1)所操作的股 是自己精心挑选的中长线牛股
(2)大盘走势的合作 (要么上涨 要么RANGE震荡)
举例:
EXEL:是我选定的一个中长线股,长持一半,基本不动 (除非大盘 BIO转熊 特别熊,那种时候 很可能需要出来避避风头)另外一半 高抛低吸操作。
02/17 OE日,我出了半仓@23.10。上周四、周五两日她DIP时 我前后卖了50个03/17 21的PUTS,均价@1.50,20天后,要么expired,白赚$7500。要么 相当于买回半仓@19.5,基本上无需操作,就有+15%以上的利润(差价)。当然 也可以roll-over to next month。
INCY:每个月 在她DIP时 我都会卖半仓的ITM PUTS。
AMD ACAD TSRO:有周OPTIONS,更方便,几乎每周 我都会卖半仓的ITM PUTS 或者 OTM CALLS。AMD:唯一的非BIO 万绿丛中一点红。嘿嘿。
如此,我今年持有的9个中长线股之YTD 高于35%。特别是INCY EXEL TSRO:这两三年来 几乎就是我的money machine。懒懒的我 懒得细算。呵呵。